{"id":39501,"date":"2020-09-02T18:18:22","date_gmt":"2020-09-02T17:18:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/itrc-2020.ouce.ox.ac.uk\/?page_id=39501"},"modified":"2020-09-24T20:26:57","modified_gmt":"2020-09-24T19:26:57","slug":"water","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.itrc.org.uk\/themes\/water\/","title":{"rendered":"Water"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>[et_pb_section fb_built=&#8221;1&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; background_color=&#8221;#636363&#8243; background_color_gradient_direction=&#8221;160deg&#8221; background_image=&#8221;https:\/\/itrc-2020.ouce.ox.ac.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/shutterstock_790878583.jpg&#8221; background_blend=&#8221;multiply&#8221; custom_margin=&#8221;||||false|false&#8221; animation_style=&#8221;fade&#8221;][et_pb_row _builder_version=&#8221;3.26.6&#8243;][et_pb_column type=&#8221;4_4&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;3.26.6&#8243;][et_pb_text _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; header_font_size=&#8221;35px&#8221; header_6_font=&#8221;|700|||||||&#8221; header_6_text_color=&#8221;#fe6223&#8243; background_layout=&#8221;dark&#8221;]<\/p>\n<h6>THEMES<\/h6>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; header_font_size=&#8221;35px&#8221; background_layout=&#8221;dark&#8221; custom_margin=&#8221;-40px|||||&#8221;]<\/p>\n<h1>WATER<\/h1>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][et_pb_row module_id=&#8221;navigation-strip&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243;][et_pb_column type=&#8221;4_4&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243;][et_pb_text _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; header_4_text_color=&#8221;#ffffff&#8221; header_4_font_size=&#8221;17px&#8221;]<\/p>\n<h4>NISMOD\u2019s water resource systems model simulates water sources and supplies, enabling us to plan water infrastructure investments and policies that are resilient to an uncertain future.<\/h4>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section fb_built=&#8221;1&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; background_color=&#8221;rgba(0,0,0,0)&#8221; custom_padding=&#8221;0px||0px||false|false&#8221;][et_pb_row column_structure=&#8221;1_5,1_5,1_5,1_5,1_5&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; custom_margin=&#8221;-24px|auto||auto||&#8221; custom_padding=&#8221;0px||0px||false|false&#8221; link_option_url=&#8221;#navigation-strip&#8221;][et_pb_column type=&#8221;1_5&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243;][et_pb_button button_url=&#8221;#introduction&#8221; button_text=&#8221;Introduction&#8221; button_alignment=&#8221;center&#8221; module_class=&#8221;full-width-btn&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; background_layout=&#8221;dark&#8221;][\/et_pb_button][\/et_pb_column][et_pb_column type=&#8221;1_5&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243;][et_pb_button button_url=&#8221;#results&#8221; button_text=&#8221;Results&#8221; module_class=&#8221;full-width-btn&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; positioning=&#8221;relative&#8221; background_layout=&#8221;dark&#8221;][\/et_pb_button][\/et_pb_column][et_pb_column type=&#8221;1_5&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243;][et_pb_button button_url=&#8221;#applications&#8221; button_text=&#8221;Applications&#8221; module_class=&#8221;full-width-btn&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; background_layout=&#8221;dark&#8221;][\/et_pb_button][\/et_pb_column][et_pb_column type=&#8221;1_5&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243;][et_pb_button button_url=&#8221;#models&#8221; button_text=&#8221;Models&#8221; button_alignment=&#8221;center&#8221; module_class=&#8221;full-width-btn&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; background_layout=&#8221;dark&#8221;][\/et_pb_button][\/et_pb_column][et_pb_column type=&#8221;1_5&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243;][et_pb_button button_url=&#8221;#publications&#8221; button_text=&#8221;Publications&#8221; button_alignment=&#8221;center&#8221; module_class=&#8221;full-width-btn&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; background_layout=&#8221;dark&#8221;][\/et_pb_button][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section fb_built=&#8221;1&#8243; module_id=&#8221;introduction&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; background_enable_color=&#8221;off&#8221; animation_direction=&#8221;left&#8221; z_index_tablet=&#8221;500&#8243; border_color_all=&#8221;#ffffff&#8221; border_width_top=&#8221;20px&#8221; border_width_right=&#8221;20px&#8221; border_width_left=&#8221;20px&#8221; border_width_top_tablet=&#8221;20px&#8221; border_width_top_phone=&#8221;20px&#8221; border_width_right_tablet=&#8221;20px&#8221; border_width_right_phone=&#8221;20px&#8221; border_width_left_tablet=&#8221;20px&#8221; border_width_left_phone=&#8221;20px&#8221; box_shadow_horizontal_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; box_shadow_vertical_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; box_shadow_blur_tablet=&#8221;40px&#8221; box_shadow_spread_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; locked=&#8221;off&#8221;][et_pb_row _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; custom_padding=&#8221;||30px|||&#8221; animation_style=&#8221;slide&#8221; animation_direction=&#8221;left&#8221; animation_intensity_slide=&#8221;4%&#8221;][et_pb_column type=&#8221;4_4&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;3.26.6&#8243;][et_pb_text _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; header_font_size=&#8221;35px&#8221; header_6_font=&#8221;|700|||||||&#8221; header_6_text_color=&#8221;#fe6223&#8243; background_layout=&#8221;dark&#8221;]<\/p>\n<h6>WATER<\/h6>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; header_font_size=&#8221;35px&#8221; header_3_font=&#8221;|700||on|||||&#8221; header_3_text_color=&#8221;#3c3c3c&#8221; header_4_text_color=&#8221;#3c3c3c&#8221; background_layout=&#8221;dark&#8221; custom_margin=&#8221;-40px|||||&#8221;]<\/p>\n<h3>INTRODUCTION<\/h3>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][et_pb_row _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; custom_padding=&#8221;0px|||||&#8221;][et_pb_column type=&#8221;4_4&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;3.26.6&#8243;][et_pb_text _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; text_text_color=&#8221;#3c3c3c&#8221; header_text_color=&#8221;#fe6223&#8243; header_4_font_size=&#8221;19px&#8221; header_4_line_height=&#8221;1.7em&#8221; header_5_text_color=&#8221;#fe6223&#8243; max_width=&#8221;100%&#8221; custom_margin=&#8221;|-384px||||&#8221; custom_padding=&#8221;|0px||||&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p>The water resource system model simulates (i) present and future needs for water, by homes, industry and farmers (ii) the system of water withdrawals (from rivers and groundwater), reservoirs, water transfers, treatment works (including desalination and waste water reuse), and water discharges back into rivers. The quantity of water that is available in rivers is estimated from historical records and future climate simulations. The model is a \u2018simulation\u2019 model, meaning that it simulates the movement of water around the system and can be used to estimate how frequently water shortages might occur in future. The model is used to test what infrastructure investments (e.g. to reduce leakage or build new reservoirs) and policies (e.g. to reduce demand) may be needed in order to ensure resilient water supplies.<\/p>\n<p>Future climate simulations are provided by the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.climateprediction.net\/weatherathome\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Weather@Home<\/a> climate modelling work and we use the <a href=\"https:\/\/gmd.copernicus.org\/articles\/12\/2285\/2019\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">DECIPHeR<\/a> model to transform rainfall into runoff \u2013 and thus provide us with the flow inputs we require. The water supply system model framework was developed in close collaboration with water utilities. Because it is a national scale model, NISMOD cannot represent every detail of Britain\u2019s water supply system, but it has been verified to be a reasonable approximation.<\/p>\n<p>By simulating Britain\u2019s water resource system we can answer a range of important questions. Which cities are likely to face shortfalls in supply? How far do the impacts of specific assets spread throughout the system (e.g. can expanding a reservoir in Wales increase supply reliability in London?)? How resilient is our water supply to changes in climate and demand? What are the benefits of national scale infrastructure projects that cross the boundaries of existing water companies and regions?<\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][et_pb_row column_structure=&#8221;1_2,1_2&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; custom_padding=&#8221;0px|||||&#8221;][et_pb_column type=&#8221;1_2&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;3.26.6&#8243;][et_pb_image src=&#8221;https:\/\/itrc-2020.ouce.ox.ac.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/themes_water_fig1.png&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243;][\/et_pb_image][\/et_pb_column][et_pb_column type=&#8221;1_2&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;3.26.6&#8243;][et_pb_image src=&#8221;https:\/\/itrc-2020.ouce.ox.ac.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/themes_water_fig3.png&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243;][\/et_pb_image][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][et_pb_row _builder_version=&#8221;3.26.6&#8243;][et_pb_column type=&#8221;4_4&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;3.26.6&#8243;][et_pb_button button_url=&#8221;#navigation-strip&#8221; button_text=&#8221;Back to top&#8221; button_alignment=&#8221;right&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; custom_button=&#8221;on&#8221; button_text_size=&#8221;14px&#8221; button_border_radius=&#8221;60px&#8221; button_font=&#8221;|700|||||||&#8221; button_icon=&#8221;%%0%%&#8221; button_icon_color=&#8221;#ffffff&#8221; button_on_hover=&#8221;off&#8221; background_layout=&#8221;dark&#8221;]<br \/>\n[\/et_pb_button][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section fb_built=&#8221;1&#8243; module_id=&#8221;results&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; background_color=&#8221;#f1f9fa&#8221; custom_padding=&#8221;||60px|||&#8221; animation_direction=&#8221;left&#8221; z_index_tablet=&#8221;500&#8243; border_color_all=&#8221;#ffffff&#8221; border_width_top=&#8221;20px&#8221; border_width_right=&#8221;20px&#8221; border_width_left=&#8221;20px&#8221; border_width_top_tablet=&#8221;20px&#8221; border_width_top_phone=&#8221;20px&#8221; border_width_right_tablet=&#8221;20px&#8221; border_width_right_phone=&#8221;20px&#8221; border_width_left_tablet=&#8221;20px&#8221; border_width_left_phone=&#8221;20px&#8221; box_shadow_horizontal_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; box_shadow_vertical_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; box_shadow_blur_tablet=&#8221;40px&#8221; box_shadow_spread_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221;][et_pb_row _builder_version=&#8221;3.26.6&#8243; custom_padding=&#8221;||30px|||&#8221; animation_style=&#8221;slide&#8221; animation_direction=&#8221;left&#8221; animation_intensity_slide=&#8221;4%&#8221;][et_pb_column type=&#8221;4_4&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;3.26.6&#8243;][et_pb_text _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; header_font_size=&#8221;35px&#8221; header_6_font=&#8221;|700|||||||&#8221; header_6_text_color=&#8221;#fe6223&#8243; background_layout=&#8221;dark&#8221;]<\/p>\n<h6>WATER<\/h6>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; header_font_size=&#8221;35px&#8221; header_3_font=&#8221;|700||on|||||&#8221; header_3_text_color=&#8221;#3c3c3c&#8221; header_4_text_color=&#8221;#3c3c3c&#8221; background_layout=&#8221;dark&#8221; custom_margin=&#8221;-40px|||||&#8221;]<\/p>\n<h3>RESULTS<\/h3>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][et_pb_row column_structure=&#8221;1_2,1_2&#8243; use_custom_gutter=&#8221;on&#8221; gutter_width=&#8221;1&#8243; make_equal=&#8221;on&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; background_color=&#8221;rgba(0,0,0,0)&#8221; custom_margin=&#8221;||50px||false|false&#8221; custom_padding=&#8221;0px||0px||true|false&#8221;][et_pb_column type=&#8221;1_2&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; background_color=&#8221;#006f74&#8243; custom_padding=&#8221;30px|30px|30px|30px|true|true&#8221;][et_pb_blurb _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; background_layout=&#8221;dark&#8221;]The distribution of drought year severity and probability for the historical (a), baseline (b), near future (c) and far future (d) periods. Bars represent the distribution of days of restriction during drought years for a given region \u2013 with the box covering the 25th-75th percentile, a vertical line at the median, whiskers extending to 1.5 times the interquartile range and \u2018outliers\u2019 indicated by circles. The position on the Y-axis represents the probability of there being a drought year for a given region. Bars are coloured to distinguish between different regions. Regions with three or fewer drought years in that period show points only. [\/et_pb_blurb][\/et_pb_column][et_pb_column type=&#8221;1_2&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; background_color=&#8221;#ffffff&#8221; custom_padding=&#8221;30px|30px|30px|30px|true|true&#8221;][et_pb_image src=&#8221;https:\/\/itrc-2020.ouce.ox.ac.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/themes_water_fig2.png&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243;][\/et_pb_image][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][et_pb_row _builder_version=&#8221;3.26.6&#8243;][et_pb_column type=&#8221;4_4&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;3.26.6&#8243;][et_pb_button button_url=&#8221;#navigation-strip&#8221; button_text=&#8221;Back to top&#8221; button_alignment=&#8221;right&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; custom_button=&#8221;on&#8221; button_text_size=&#8221;14px&#8221; button_border_radius=&#8221;60px&#8221; button_font=&#8221;|700|||||||&#8221; button_icon=&#8221;%%0%%&#8221; button_icon_color=&#8221;#ffffff&#8221; button_on_hover=&#8221;off&#8221; background_layout=&#8221;dark&#8221;]<br \/>\n[\/et_pb_button][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section fb_built=&#8221;1&#8243; module_id=&#8221;applications&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; background_color=&#8221;#006f74&#8243; custom_padding=&#8221;||60px|||&#8221; animation_direction=&#8221;left&#8221; z_index_tablet=&#8221;500&#8243; border_color_all=&#8221;#ffffff&#8221; border_width_top=&#8221;20px&#8221; border_width_right=&#8221;20px&#8221; border_width_left=&#8221;20px&#8221; border_width_top_tablet=&#8221;20px&#8221; border_width_top_phone=&#8221;20px&#8221; border_width_right_tablet=&#8221;20px&#8221; border_width_right_phone=&#8221;20px&#8221; border_width_left_tablet=&#8221;20px&#8221; border_width_left_phone=&#8221;20px&#8221; box_shadow_horizontal_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; box_shadow_vertical_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; box_shadow_blur_tablet=&#8221;40px&#8221; box_shadow_spread_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221;][et_pb_row _builder_version=&#8221;3.26.6&#8243; custom_padding=&#8221;||30px|||&#8221; animation_style=&#8221;slide&#8221; animation_direction=&#8221;left&#8221; animation_intensity_slide=&#8221;4%&#8221;][et_pb_column type=&#8221;4_4&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;3.26.6&#8243;][et_pb_text _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; header_font_size=&#8221;35px&#8221; header_6_font=&#8221;|700|||||||&#8221; header_6_text_color=&#8221;#fe6223&#8243; background_layout=&#8221;dark&#8221;]<\/p>\n<h6>WATER<\/h6>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; header_font_size=&#8221;35px&#8221; header_3_font=&#8221;|700||on|||||&#8221; header_3_text_color=&#8221;#ffffff&#8221; header_4_text_color=&#8221;#3c3c3c&#8221; background_layout=&#8221;dark&#8221; custom_margin=&#8221;-40px|||||&#8221;]<\/p>\n<h3>APPLICATIONS<\/h3>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][et_pb_row column_structure=&#8221;1_2,1_2&#8243; use_custom_gutter=&#8221;on&#8221; gutter_width=&#8221;2&#8243; make_equal=&#8221;on&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; background_color=&#8221;rgba(0,0,0,0)&#8221; custom_margin=&#8221;||50px||false|false&#8221; custom_padding=&#8221;0px||0px||true|false&#8221; border_radii=&#8221;on|6px|6px|6px|6px&#8221; border_color_all=&#8221;#d6d6d6&#8243; border_width_bottom=&#8221;0px&#8221; border_color_bottom=&#8221;#006f74&#8243;][et_pb_column type=&#8221;1_2&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; background_color=&#8221;#ffffff&#8221; custom_padding=&#8221;30px|30px|30px|30px|true|true&#8221; border_radii=&#8221;on|6px|6px|6px|6px&#8221; border_width_all=&#8221;1px&#8221; border_color_all=&#8221;#d6d6d6&#8243; border_width_bottom=&#8221;5px&#8221; border_color_bottom=&#8221;#fe6223&#8243;][et_pb_blurb title=&#8221;National Infrastructure Commission&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; header_level=&#8221;h6&#8243; header_font=&#8221;|700|||||||&#8221; header_text_color=&#8221;#fe6223&#8243; header_font_size=&#8221;19px&#8221; custom_padding=&#8221;||50px||false|false&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p>An early version of the NISMOD water supply model was used to provide the analysis for the National Infrastructure Commission\u2019s analysis of water infrastructure: <em>Preparing for a Drier Future<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_blurb][et_pb_button button_url=&#8221;https:\/\/nic.org.uk\/studies-reports\/national-infrastructure-assessment\/national-infrastructure-assessment-1\/preparing-for-a-drier-future\/&#8221; url_new_window=&#8221;on&#8221; button_text=&#8221;View report&#8221; button_alignment=&#8221;center&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; positioning=&#8221;absolute&#8221; position_origin_a=&#8221;bottom_right&#8221; background_layout=&#8221;dark&#8221; custom_margin=&#8221;35px||||false|false&#8221; hover_enabled=&#8221;0&#8243;][\/et_pb_button][\/et_pb_column][et_pb_column type=&#8221;1_2&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; background_color=&#8221;#ffffff&#8221; custom_padding=&#8221;30px|30px|30px|30px|true|true&#8221; border_radii=&#8221;on|6px|6px|6px|6px&#8221; border_width_all=&#8221;1px&#8221; border_color_all=&#8221;#d6d6d6&#8243; border_width_bottom=&#8221;5px&#8221; border_color_bottom=&#8221;#fe6223&#8243;][et_pb_blurb title=&#8221;National Framework for Water Resources &#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; header_level=&#8221;h6&#8243; header_font=&#8221;|700|||||||&#8221; header_text_color=&#8221;#fe6223&#8243; header_font_size=&#8221;19px&#8221; custom_padding=&#8221;||50px||false|false&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p>The Environment Agency\u2019s National Framework for Water Resources used our model to test the resilience of water supplies in England and Wales.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_blurb][et_pb_button button_url=&#8221;https:\/\/assets.publishing.service.gov.uk\/government\/uploads\/system\/uploads\/attachment_data\/file\/873100\/National_Framework_for_water_resources_summary.pdf&#8221; url_new_window=&#8221;on&#8221; button_text=&#8221;View report&#8221; button_alignment=&#8221;center&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; positioning=&#8221;absolute&#8221; position_origin_a=&#8221;bottom_right&#8221; background_layout=&#8221;dark&#8221; custom_margin=&#8221;35px||||false|false&#8221; hover_enabled=&#8221;0&#8243;][\/et_pb_button][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][et_pb_row _builder_version=&#8221;3.26.6&#8243;][et_pb_column type=&#8221;4_4&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;3.26.6&#8243;][et_pb_button button_url=&#8221;#navigation-strip&#8221; button_text=&#8221;Back to top&#8221; button_alignment=&#8221;right&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; custom_button=&#8221;on&#8221; button_text_size=&#8221;14px&#8221; button_border_radius=&#8221;60px&#8221; button_font=&#8221;|700|||||||&#8221; button_icon=&#8221;%%0%%&#8221; button_icon_color=&#8221;#ffffff&#8221; button_on_hover=&#8221;off&#8221; background_layout=&#8221;dark&#8221;]<br \/>\n[\/et_pb_button][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section fb_built=&#8221;1&#8243; module_id=&#8221;models&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; background_color=&#8221;#f1f9fa&#8221; animation_direction=&#8221;left&#8221; z_index_tablet=&#8221;500&#8243; border_color_all=&#8221;#ffffff&#8221; border_width_top=&#8221;20px&#8221; border_width_right=&#8221;20px&#8221; border_width_left=&#8221;20px&#8221; border_width_top_tablet=&#8221;20px&#8221; border_width_top_phone=&#8221;20px&#8221; border_width_right_tablet=&#8221;20px&#8221; border_width_right_phone=&#8221;20px&#8221; border_width_left_tablet=&#8221;20px&#8221; border_width_left_phone=&#8221;20px&#8221; box_shadow_horizontal_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; box_shadow_vertical_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; box_shadow_blur_tablet=&#8221;40px&#8221; box_shadow_spread_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; locked=&#8221;off&#8221;][et_pb_row _builder_version=&#8221;3.26.6&#8243; custom_padding=&#8221;||30px|||&#8221; animation_style=&#8221;slide&#8221; animation_direction=&#8221;left&#8221; animation_intensity_slide=&#8221;4%&#8221;][et_pb_column type=&#8221;4_4&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;3.26.6&#8243;][et_pb_text _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; header_font_size=&#8221;35px&#8221; header_6_font=&#8221;|700|||||||&#8221; header_6_text_color=&#8221;#fe6223&#8243; background_layout=&#8221;dark&#8221;]<\/p>\n<h6>WATER<\/h6>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; header_font_size=&#8221;35px&#8221; header_3_font=&#8221;|700||on|||||&#8221; header_3_text_color=&#8221;#3c3c3c&#8221; header_4_text_color=&#8221;#3c3c3c&#8221; background_layout=&#8221;dark&#8221; custom_margin=&#8221;-40px|||||&#8221;]<\/p>\n<h3>MODELS<\/h3>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][et_pb_row column_structure=&#8221;1_2,1_2&#8243; use_custom_gutter=&#8221;on&#8221; gutter_width=&#8221;1&#8243; make_equal=&#8221;on&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; background_color=&#8221;rgba(0,0,0,0)&#8221; height=&#8221;260px&#8221; custom_margin=&#8221;||50px||false|false&#8221; custom_padding=&#8221;0px||0px||true|false&#8221;][et_pb_column type=&#8221;1_2&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; background_color=&#8221;#006f74&#8243; custom_padding=&#8221;30px|30px|30px|30px|true|true&#8221;][et_pb_blurb title=&#8221;weather@home&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; header_level=&#8221;h6&#8243; header_font=&#8221;|700|||||||&#8221; header_text_color=&#8221;#fe6223&#8243; header_font_size=&#8221;19px&#8221; background_layout=&#8221;dark&#8221; custom_padding=&#8221;||50px||false|false&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p><span>Weather@home produces the national climate scenarios for water resource system simulation. Weather@home is a modelling framework that consists of a global and a regional climate model, driven with prescribed sea surface temperatures and sea ice projections. Weather@home was used to create ensembles of climate conditions for England and Wales that are large enough to facilitate investigation of drought extremes and their spatial dynamics.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_blurb][\/et_pb_column][et_pb_column type=&#8221;1_2&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; background_color=&#8221;#969696&#8243; background_image=&#8221;https:\/\/itrc-2020.ouce.ox.ac.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/xps-g2E2NQ5SWSU-unsplash.jpg&#8221; background_blend=&#8221;multiply&#8221; custom_padding=&#8221;30px|30px|30px|30px|true|true&#8221;][et_pb_button button_url=&#8221;https:\/\/www.climateprediction.net\/weatherathome\/&#8221; url_new_window=&#8221;on&#8221; button_text=&#8221;Go to weather@home&#8221; button_alignment=&#8221;center&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; custom_button=&#8221;on&#8221; button_text_color=&#8221;#ffffff&#8221; button_bg_color=&#8221;#fe6223&#8243; button_border_color=&#8221;#fe6223&#8243; button_icon=&#8221;%%20%%&#8221; button_icon_color=&#8221;#ffffff&#8221; button_on_hover=&#8221;off&#8221; positioning=&#8221;absolute&#8221; position_origin_a=&#8221;bottom_right&#8221; background_layout=&#8221;dark&#8221; custom_margin=&#8221;35px||||false|false&#8221; hover_enabled=&#8221;0&#8243;][\/et_pb_button][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][et_pb_row column_structure=&#8221;1_2,1_2&#8243; use_custom_gutter=&#8221;on&#8221; gutter_width=&#8221;1&#8243; make_equal=&#8221;on&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; background_color=&#8221;rgba(0,0,0,0)&#8221; height=&#8221;260px&#8221; custom_margin=&#8221;||50px||false|false&#8221; custom_padding=&#8221;0px||0px||true|false&#8221;][et_pb_column type=&#8221;1_2&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; background_color=&#8221;#006f74&#8243; custom_padding=&#8221;30px|30px|30px|30px|true|true&#8221;][et_pb_blurb title=&#8221;DECIPHeR&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; header_level=&#8221;h6&#8243; header_font=&#8221;|700|||||||&#8221; header_text_color=&#8221;#fe6223&#8243; header_font_size=&#8221;19px&#8221; background_layout=&#8221;dark&#8221; custom_padding=&#8221;||50px||false|false&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p><span>DECIPHeR is a national hydrological model developed at the University of Bristol to enable drought risk analysis and water resource system simulation.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_blurb][\/et_pb_column][et_pb_column type=&#8221;1_2&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; background_color=&#8221;#969696&#8243; background_image=&#8221;https:\/\/itrc-2020.ouce.ox.ac.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/energy-e1593364327475.jpg&#8221; background_blend=&#8221;multiply&#8221; custom_padding=&#8221;30px|30px|30px|30px|true|true&#8221;][et_pb_button button_url=&#8221;https:\/\/github.com\/uob-hydrology\/DECIPHeR&#8221; url_new_window=&#8221;on&#8221; button_text=&#8221;DECIPHeR on GitHub&#8221; button_alignment=&#8221;center&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; custom_button=&#8221;on&#8221; button_text_color=&#8221;#ffffff&#8221; button_bg_color=&#8221;#fe6223&#8243; button_border_color=&#8221;#fe6223&#8243; 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module_id=&#8221;publications&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.2.2&#8243; background_color=&#8221;#ffffff&#8221; animation_direction=&#8221;left&#8221; z_index_tablet=&#8221;500&#8243; border_color_all=&#8221;#ffffff&#8221; border_width_top=&#8221;20px&#8221; border_width_right=&#8221;20px&#8221; border_width_left=&#8221;20px&#8221; border_width_top_tablet=&#8221;20px&#8221; border_width_top_phone=&#8221;20px&#8221; border_width_right_tablet=&#8221;20px&#8221; border_width_right_phone=&#8221;20px&#8221; border_width_left_tablet=&#8221;20px&#8221; border_width_left_phone=&#8221;20px&#8221; box_shadow_horizontal_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; box_shadow_vertical_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; box_shadow_blur_tablet=&#8221;40px&#8221; box_shadow_spread_tablet=&#8221;0px&#8221; locked=&#8221;off&#8221;][et_pb_row _builder_version=&#8221;3.26.6&#8243; custom_padding=&#8221;||30px|||&#8221; animation_style=&#8221;slide&#8221; animation_direction=&#8221;left&#8221; animation_intensity_slide=&#8221;4%&#8221;][et_pb_column type=&#8221;4_4&#8243; 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